The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling
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Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling by Gunnar Bardsen
Book DescriptionMacroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course' model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve, Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.
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Book DetailsISBN: 9780199246496
(242mm x 163mm x 24mm)
Imprint: Oxford University Press
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Publish Date: 14-Apr-2005
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Books By Author Gunnar Bardsen
Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling, Paperback (April 2005)» View all books by Gunnar Bardsen
Inflation targeting has moved the quality of econometric methodology and practice into the limelight of economic policy debate. This book describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.
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Author Biography - Gunnar Bardsen
Ragnar Nymoen, b. 1957, is Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo. He has published papers in macroeconomics and econometrics. In the period 1985-1996, he worked as an economists in the Research Department in Central Bank of Norway.
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