Identification Problems in the Social Sciences
By (author) Charles F. Manski
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Identification Problems in the Social Sciences by Charles F. Manski
Book DescriptionThis text provides a language and a set of tools for finding bounds on the predictions that social and behavioural scientists can logically make from non-experimental and experimental data. Economist Charles Manski draws on examples from criminology, demography, epidemiology, social psychology and sociology as well as economics to illustrate this language and to demonstrate the broad usefulness of the tools. There are many traditional ways to present identification problems in econometrics, sociology and psychometrics. Some of these are primarily statistical in nature, using concepts such as flat likelihood functions and non-distinct parameter estimates. Manski's strategy is to divorce identification from purely statistical concepts and to present the logic of identification analysis in ways that are accessible to a wide audience in the social and behavioural sciences. In each case problems are motivated by real examples with real policy importance, the mathematics is kept to a minimum, and the deductions on identifiability are derived providing fresh insights. Manski begins with the conceptual problem of extrapolating predictions from one population to some new population or to the future. He then analyzes the fundamental selection problem that arises whenever a scientist tries to predict the effects of treatments on outcomes. He specifies assumptions and develops his non-parametric methods of bounding predictions. Manski shows how these tools should be used to investigate common problems such as predicting the effect of family structure on children's outcomes and the effect of policing on crime rates. Successive chapters deal with topics such as the use of experiments to evaluate social programmes, the use of case-control sampling by epidemiologists studying the association of risk factors and disease and the use of intentions data by demographers seeking to predict future fertility. The book closes by examining two central identification problems in the analysis of social interactions: the classical simultaneity problem of econometrics and the reflection problem faced in analyses of neighbourhood and contextual effects.
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Book DetailsISBN: 9780674442849
(222mm x 143mm x 12mm)
Imprint: Harvard University Press
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Publish Date: 31-Mar-1999
Country of Publication: United States
Books By Author Charles F. Manski
Public Policy in an Uncertain World, Hardback (February 2013)
Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.
Identification for Prediction and Decision, Hardback (December 2007)
Provides an exposition of Charles Manski's methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social sciences. This book studies prediction with missing or otherwise incomplete data. It also concerns the analysis of treatment response, which aims to predict outcomes when alternative treatment rules are applied to a population.
Economics to Econometrics, Hardback (October 2007)
The original research papers collected in this volume continue the development of discrete choice analysis, of related structural models for analysis of choice behavior, and of the statistical theory used in inference on these models. Most papers in the volume are revised versions of ones presented at a 2005 conference in honor of Daniel L.
Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response, Hardback (October 2005)» View all books by Charles F. Manski
How should planners use the available evidence to choose treatments? This book addresses key aspects of this question, exploring and partially resolving pervasive problems of identification and statistical inference that arise when studying treatment response and making treatment choices.
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Author Biography - Charles F. Manski
Charles F. Manski is Board of Trustees Professor of Economics at Northwestern University.
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