Understanding Economic Forecasts
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Understanding Economic Forecasts by David F. Hendry
Book DescriptionHistorically, the theory of forecasting that underpinned actual practice in economics has been based on two key assumptions -- that the model was a good representation of the economy and that the structure of the economy would remain relatively unchanged. In reality, forecast models are mis-specified, the economy is subject to unanticipated shifts, and the failure to make accurate predictions is relatively common. In the last decade, economists have developed new theories of economic forecasting and additional methods of forecast evaluation that make less stringent assumptions. These theories and methods acknowledge that the economy is dynamic and prone to sudden shifts. They also recognize that forecasting models, however good, are greatly simplified representations that will be incorrect in some respects. One advantage of these newer approaches is that we can now account for the different results of competing forecasts. In this book academic specialists, practitioners, and a financial journalist explain these new developments in economic forecasting. The authors discuss how forecasting is conducted, evaluated, reported, and applied by academic, private, and governmental bodies, as well as how forecasting might be taught and what costs are induced by forecast errors. They also describe how econometric models for forecasting are constructed, how properties of forecasting methods can be analyzed, and what the future of economic forecasting may bring.
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Book DetailsISBN: 9780262582421
(229mm x 152mm x 12mm)
Imprint: MIT Press
Publisher: MIT Press Ltd
Publish Date: 2-Sep-2003
Country of Publication: United States
Books By Author David F. Hendry
[Oxford] Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Hardback (July 2011)
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new developments and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and are authoritative yet accessible.
Econometric Modeling, Paperback (March 2007)
The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. Focusing on modeling, this book aims to give students the statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and also presents a thorough understanding of econometric techniques.
Nonlinear Econometric Modeling in Time Series, Paperback (November 2006)» View all books by David F. Hendry
This book presents some of the more recent developments in nonlinear time series, including Bayesian analysis and cointegration tests.
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Author Biography - David F. Hendry
David F. Hendry is the Leverhulme Personal Research Professor of Economics and Fellow of Nuffield College at OxfordUniversity, UK.
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