Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.
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(234mm x 156mm x 30mm)
Cambridge University Press
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
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Author Biography - Ward Edwards
Ward Edwards (1927-2005) received his Ph.D. in Psychology from Harvard University. He was the recipient of many awards including the Frank P. Ramsey Award from the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS in 1988 and the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award in Applied Psychology from the American Psychological Association in 1996. He wrote more than one hundred journal articles and books including Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research and Utility Theories: Measurement and Applications. Ralph F. Miles, Jr., received his Ph.D. in Physics from the California Institute of Technology and is a consultant in risk and decision analysis. He was the editor and coauthor of Systems Concepts and has written many articles. Until 1991, he worked as an engineer, supervisor, and manager in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology. Detlof von Winterfeldt is Professor and Deputy Dean of the School of Policy, Planning, and Development at the University of Southern California. He is also Director of the Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events at USC. He received his Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Michigan. He cowrote Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research with Ward Edwards.