Description - Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability by Juha M. Alho
There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.
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(228mm x 152mm x 21mm)
Cambridge University Press
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
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Author Biography - Juha M. Alho
Juha M. Alho is Professor of Statistics at University of Joensuu, Finland. He is the author (with Bruce D. Spencer) of Statistical Demography and Forecasting (2005) and a former president of the Finnish Society of Biostatistics. Svend E. Hougaard Jensen is Managing Director of the Copenhagen-based Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR), Professor of Economics at the University of Southern Denmark at Odense, a research associate at the Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU) at the University of Copenhagen and a member of Danish Council for Research Policy. Jukka Lassila is Research Director at the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) in Helsinki. He has coordinated several international research projects concerning population ageing and is currently scientific coordinator in the EU 5th Framework research project 'Demographic uncertainty and the sustainability of social welfare systems'.