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Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future-forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment.
Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction.
Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it.
To complete readers' understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future.
Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 year career as economist and futurist into a guide that other leaders can use to avoid problems and create better options in any realm.
The book includes a foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz, author of Positive Turbulence.
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Book DetailsISBN: 9781466554030
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Jeffrey C. Bauer, PhD, is an internationally recognized health futurist and medical economist. As an independent industry thought leader, he forecasts the evolution of health care and develops practical approaches to improving the medical sector of the American economy. He is widely known for his specific proposal to create an efficient and effective health care delivery system through multi-stakeholder partnerships and other initiatives focused in the private sector.Dr. Bauer has published more than 250 articles, books, web pages, and videos on health care delivery. He speaks frequently to national and international audiences about key trends in health care, medical science, technology, information systems, reimbursement, public policy, and creative problem solving. Dr. Bauer is quoted often in the national press and writes regularly for professional journals that cover the business of health care. He is the author of Statistical Analysis for Health Care Decision-Makers and coauthor of Paradox and Imperatives in Health Care: How Efficiency, Effectiveness, and E-Transformation Can Conquer Waste and Optimize Quality, both published by CRC Press.As a consultant, he has assisted hundreds of providers, purchasers, and payer organizations with strategic planning and performance improvement. He served in several major corporate positions from 1999 to 2010, including vice president for health care forecasting and strategy for ACS, a Xerox company.His previous consulting firm, The Bauer Group, specialized in consumer-focused strategic planning and development of clinical affiliation agreements for multihospital networks from 1984 to 1992.In his academic career, Dr. Bauer was a full-time teacher and administrator at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center in Denver from 1973 to 1984, where he held appointments as associate professor and as assistant chancellor for planning and program development. He also served concurrently for four years as health policy advisor to Colorado Governor Richard D. Lamm. From 1992 to 1998, Dr. Bauer was a visiting professor in administrative medicine at the Medical School of the University of Wisconsin Madison, where he taught physician leaders how to conduct research and evaluate published studies.He received his PhD in economics from the University of Colorado, Boulder. He graduated from Colorado College in Colorado Springs with a BA in economics and completed a certificate in political studies at the University of Paris (France). During his academic career, he was a Boettcher Scholar, a Ford Foundation Independent Scholar, a Fulbright Scholar (Switzerland), and a Kellogg Foundation National Fellow. Dr. Bauer lives in Chicago, where he is actively involved in painting and music.
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